Jakkie Cilliers’ book “Africa Tomorrow: The Path to Prosperity” is a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing Africa in the 21st century. The book provides an overview of the continent’s history, economics, politics, and demographics and argues that Africa has the potential to become a major economic power if it can address its various challenges.
The author presents a well-researched and balanced perspective on Africa’s past and present, which makes it an informative read for anyone interested in the continent’s development. Additionally, the book offers practical solutions that can help African countries overcome their challenges and achieve sustainable growth.
The book provides a thorough examination of the current level of economic and social development in Africa as well as a look at the region’s potential for future development. Accessible writing: The book is written in a clear, accessible style that makes it simple for readers to understand and interact with the content, despite the complex subject matter. Ideas for policies: Cilliers offers a wide range of policy recommendations for addressing the problems that Africa is currently facing, including issues like poverty reduction, governance, and infrastructure development. Diverse perspectives are provided in the book, which draws on the knowledge of a wide range of experts from Africa and other parts of the world. Instead of wallowing in the past, Cilliers focuses on what Africa could become in the future.
Cilliers identifies several key challenges that Africa must address, including poverty, disease, conflict, and governance issues. He argues that the continent needs to develop strong and inclusive governance systems, increase investment in education and healthcare, and promote regional integration to overcome these challenges.
The book also highlights the significant economic opportunities that exist in Africa, including the potential for increased agricultural productivity, the development of the continent’s vast natural resources, and the growth of its urban areas. Cilliers argues that these opportunities can be harnessed through increased investment, improved infrastructure, and greater regional integration.
Cilliers starts with a look at how stability can be achieved in Africa and the timeline for achieving this stability. He notes that stability is crucial for promoting economic growth, reducing poverty, and improving the quality of life for people across the continent.
He highlights a number of factors that can contribute to stability in Africa, including good governance, effective institutions, and inclusive economic growth. He argues that efforts to improve governance and combat corruption, promote peace and security, and build strong institutions are essential for achieving stability.
Achieving stability in Africa is a long-term process and will require sustained efforts over several decades. Cilliers highlights the importance of investing in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, as well as promoting economic diversification and regional integration. While Africa has made significant progress towards achieving stability in recent years, with improvements in governance, economic growth, and peace and security there are still significant challenges to address. Overall, Cilliers sees stability in Africa as an achievable goal, but one that will require sustained efforts and cooperation from all stakeholders involved, including African governments, regional organizations, and the international community.
Cilliers book emphasises the urgent need for poverty reduction in Africa. Cilliers argues that poverty is one of the most pressing challenges facing the continent, and that addressing it is critical to unlocking Africa’s economic potential.
He identifies several factors contributing to poverty in Africa, including a lack of access to education, healthcare, and other basic services, as well as conflict, weak governance, a lack of economic opportunities including lack of access to credit, and high levels of inequality. Cilliers emphasizes the need for African governments and the international community to work together to address these factors and implement policies and programs aimed at reducing poverty.
One of the key strategies that Cilliers suggests for poverty reduction is increasing investment in education and healthcare. He argues that improving access to education and healthcare will help to break the cycle of poverty and create a more skilled and healthy workforce, which is essential for economic development.
In addition to investment in education and healthcare, Cilliers emphasises the need for job creation, the promotion of entrepreneurship and increased economic opportunities in Africa. He suggests that this can be achieved through investment in infrastructure, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, greater regional integration, as well as the development of more inclusive financial systems.
In addition to these measures, Cilliers stresses the importance of good governance and the need to combat corruption as critical factors in reducing poverty in Africa. He suggests that transparent and accountable governance systems can help ensure that resources are allocated in a way that benefits the most vulnerable members of society.
According to the World Bank, in 2020, an estimated 102 million people were living in extreme poverty in Nigeria. This means that they were living on less than $1.90 per day, which is the international poverty line set by the World Bank. Nigeria has one of the largest populations in Africa, and it is estimated that it accounts for 1 in 7 people a significant living in extreme poverty globally.
Investments in education and healthcare will yield a demographic dividend for Africa’s economic growth and development. The demographic dividend refers to the economic benefit that a country can gain from having a young and growing population that is economically active and productive. Africa has the world’s youngest population, with more than 60% under the age of 25. According to Cilliers’ if Africa can provide these young people with education, skills, and job opportunities, they can become a significant driving force for economic growth and development.
Cilliers points out that the demographic dividend is not automatic, it requires certain conditions to be in place. Moreover, he writes that the demographic dividend is time-limited and that it will only be available to those countries that can effectively harness it within a relatively short time frame. Therefore, Cilliers emphasizes that African countries must act quickly to create the conditions necessary to capitalize on the demographic dividend and drive sustainable economic growth and development.
According to the United Nations Population Division, the projected growth in the ratio of working-age persons to dependents in Africa is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades. In 2020, the ratio of working-age people (ages 15-64) to dependents (those under 15 years old and over 64 years old) was 0.62 in Africa. By 2030, the ratio is projected to increase to 0.69, indicating a relatively higher number of working-age individuals. The ratio is expected to continue to increase to 0.76 by 2040, and further to 0.84 by 2050.
In 2020, the ratio of working-age people (ages 15-64) to dependents (those under 15 years old and over 64 years old) was 0.79 in Nigeria. By 2030, the ratio is projected to increase to 0.89, indicating a relatively higher number of working-age individuals. The ratio is expected to continue to increase to 1.01 by 2040, and further to 1.13 by 2050.
“When the continent reaches a ratio of 1.7 persons of working age to each dependant in about 2051, it will enter a window of particularly rapid income growth through the large contribution that labour – as opposed to capital and technology – makes to economic growth. In the Current Path forecast, this window will last for about two decades, provided it is accompanied by investments in human capital formation (education). The Current Path forecast is that, eventually, Africa will experience a peak ratio of about two persons of working age to every dependant shortly after 2070. Thereafter, the ratio starts to decline.”
Jakkie Cilliers. “Africa Tomorrow – Pathways to Prosperity”.
The United Nations Population Division projects that Nigeria will experience a peak ratio of working age persons to dependents in the year 2055. At that time, the ratio is expected to reach 1.14, which indicates a relatively high number of working-age individuals in the population.
Nigeria’s working age to dependant ratio will reach a level of 1.00 in 2040, which indicates that the number of working-age individuals in the population will be relatively high compared to the number of dependents. This period represents a period of rapid growth in the working age population. From 2040 to 2050, the working age to dependant ratio is projected to continue to increase to 1.13, indicating a further period of growth in the working age population. This period of rapid growth in the working age population presents an opportunity for economic growth and development in Nigeria.
Cilliers, discusses Agenda 2063 as a long-term development framework for Africa. He notes that Agenda 2063 provides a clear vision for Africa’s development, with a focus on promoting economic growth, social inclusion, and political stability.
Cilliers highlights the importance of African countries taking ownership of the implementation of Agenda 2063, with a focus on building strong institutions, promoting good governance, and investing in infrastructure and human capital. He also notes the need for African countries to work together, both regionally and continentally, to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063 and address common challenges.
Cilliers also acknowledges that there are significant challenges to the implementation of Agenda 2063, including limited financial resources, weak institutions, and ongoing conflict and instability in some parts of the continent. He emphasizes the need for sustained political will and commitment from African leaders and the international community to overcome these challenges and achieve the vision of Agenda 2063.
Overall, Cilliers views Agenda 2063 as a crucial framework for promoting Africa’s long-term development and prosperity, but notes that it will require sustained effort and cooperation to achieve its goals.
Agenda 2063 is a long-term development framework for Africa that was adopted by the African Union (AU) in January 2015. It is a strategic framework for the socio-economic transformation of the continent over the next 50 years, with the aim of creating a prosperous and integrated Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.
Agenda 2063 is based on seven aspirations that reflect the collective vision of African countries and people for the future of the continent. These aspirations include:
- A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development.
- An integrated continent, politically united and based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of Africa’s renaissance.
- An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law.
- A peaceful and secure Africa.
- An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics.
- An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of its people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children.
- An Africa as a strong, united and influential global player and partner.
Agenda 2063 provides a framework for African countries to work towards common goals and aspirations, while also taking into account the unique challenges and opportunities faced by individual countries and regions. It emphasizes the need for African countries to take ownership of their own development, while also forging partnerships with other countries and the international community to achieve shared goals.
Cilliers discusses Africa’s potential for leapfrogging in various sectors. He notes that Africa has the potential to skip over traditional development pathways and adopt new technologies and approaches that can help the continent catch up with more developed regions.
Cilliers highlights the example of mobile technology, which has been widely adopted in Africa and has had a transformative impact on the continent. He notes that Africa has been able to leapfrog over traditional landline-based telecommunications infrastructure and adopt mobile technology as a more accessible and affordable means of communication and information sharing.
Cilliers also notes the potential for Africa to leapfrog in other sectors, such as renewable energy and digital innovation. He highlights the continent’s abundant renewable energy resources, such as solar and wind power, and notes that investments in these sectors could help Africa reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and promote sustainable development.
Additionally, Cilliers notes the potential for Africa to become a leader in digital innovation, with a growing number of tech startups and innovation hubs across the continent. He argues that investments in digital infrastructure and innovation can help Africa accelerate its development and create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation.
Cilliers also discusses governance in Africa as a crucial factor for the continent’s development and prosperity. He notes that good governance is essential for promoting economic growth, social inclusion, and political stability. He highlights the challenges that Africa has faced with governance, including corruption, weak institutions, and limited accountability. He notes that these challenges have hampered development efforts and contributed to ongoing conflict and instability in some parts of the continent.
However, Cilliers also notes that there have been some positive developments in governance in Africa in recent years. He highlights the growing number of democratic elections and peaceful transitions of power across the continent, as well as efforts to improve governance and combat corruption in some countries.
Cilliers argues that there is a need for sustained efforts to improve governance in Africa, with a focus on building strong institutions, promoting transparency and accountability, and combatting corruption. He notes that there is a role for both African leaders and the international community in supporting these efforts.
Overall, “Africa Tomorrow: The Path to Prosperity” provides a comprehensive overview of the opportunities and challenges facing Africa and offers a roadmap for the continent’s future development.
MzAgams 